In the face of a tidal wave of consumer enthusiasm, a new crop of artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), tools have set off a sort of technological arms race. Refined, foundational generative adversarial networks (GAN), and generative pre-trained transformers (GPT) now offer users the necessary processing bandwidth to follow their visual and intellectual whims, with incredible results achieved at previously unimaginable speeds.
In response to this need, a cohort of innovators are scurrying to capitalize on the AI frenzy, each striving to seize the attention of a voracious audience propelled by both anticipation and apprehension. However, if we pause for a moment to reexamine the past, and consider the fallout of emotionally-charged adoptions of pioneering technologies—such as asbestos, DDT, the dotcom bubble, subprime loans, or social media—what do we discover? Have we genuinely comprehended the full trajectory of this technology, or are we pressing ahead with progress for progress' sake? More significantly, what concessions are we making by permitting our FOMO to override our executive function?
In light of the recent advancements in these exponentially more sophisticated ANI systems, the Strategy Team foresees several adverse effects on the horizon, resulting in fundamental shifts in the perspectives of both producers and consumers of information. Our view is that these advancements will first impact the overall conscientiousness of AI users, and then, like a river flowing toward its tributaries, shift both the creative drive of producers and consumer urge for exploration.
Conscientiousness
In the pantheon of empirically-backed personality traits, conscientiousness has remained a stalwart example of responsibility, discipline, and order. It speaks to the ability to work hard, strive towards goals, and follow established norms and rules. Individuals with a high level of conscientiousness tend to take obligations seriously, deliberate over choices, and behave with caution rather than impulsiveness. It is viewed as an essential ingredient for success, both personally and professionally, and a reliable predictor of health and well-being. Such individuals believe that true knowledge requires deep understanding of both the process and result of their labor, and is earned in proportion to the time and effort invested in doing so.
However, conscientious individuals who object on moral grounds to using generative AI as a means of completing iterative tasks at a scaled speed, may increasingly be viewed as burdensome rather than prized for their autonomy and insightful contributions. Thus our team is reluctantly forecasting an emerging, AI-driven trend that places a premium on the volume of productive output in lieu of careful consideration.
Prediction: The indiscriminate use of AI will ultimately lead to a devaluation of conscientiousness as a desirable trait for collaborators. Practically speaking, managers and teachers may find it increasingly difficult to distinguish between desirable, higher-performing employees or students and their augmented, but otherwise lower-performing counterparts.
Creativity
For the producer, the act of creativity is a dialog between the contrarian impulse to challenge the conventional and an intuition born from experience and knowledge. It is the fuel that drives innovation, not mere iteration. Creativity is a crucial ingredient in the alchemical pursuit of shifting paradigms, but it is never a safe or predictable outcome. It is the lens that allowed us to see the value in the accidental discovery of penicillin.
In recent times, the concept of creativity has become a cultural afterthought, a softer target for AI. We see this in the constant upgrades of smartphones, video games, television shows, and movies that lack definitive conclusions. The desire to drive culture forward through creativity has been replaced by a desire for returns on investment. Unfortunately, few producers have the courage, patience, or budget needed to create something truly original, especially when GPT-4.0 could produce a script for $20/month. However, if producers turn to AI for inspiration, they risk being led further into the murky waters of sameness and mediocrity.
Prediction: An unrestrained embrace of AI will force producers to make a Faustian bargain. They will have to choose between producing at the pace set by AI and stifling their creativity or ignoring AI and risking having their creative expression ignored or worse, replicated by the production juggernaut that is AI. For creative producers, this is a dilemma that requires courage and a willingness to embrace risk, for we feel that it is only through such bravery that creativity can thrive.
Exploration
The concept of exploration, as opposed to stagnation, is akin to the trait of openness found in the Big Five personality traits. Openness to experience correlates with intellectual curiosity and imaginative thinking, traits associated with creativity, curiosity, and a thirst for knowledge. Those high in openness are divergent and abstract thinkers, able to generate multiple novel solutions to complex problems.
Our team in turn predicts that AI systems, whether narrow or general, will eventually trend towards the mean value when trained on large datasets. Sadly, we believe that this mean value will become the guiding locus of consumer exploration, and our culture of sameness will grow further entrenched as the dominant force. For individuals naturally inclined towards exploration, AI's remixes of tailored content will not nourish, but instead, placate them with fast-food-esque content. For those less exploratory, any cultural momentum driven by creative or innovative thinking will come to a halt, replaced by an algorithmically-predictable culture of dystopian mediocrity.
Our prediction is that, if left unchecked, the human desire for exploration will become subservient to the culture's need for efficiency and predictability—with the result being a society that values conformity to the popular norms over creativity, innovation, and individuality. AI will be able to lower the barriers to both production and consumption, but our prediction is that this future may look more “variations on a theme” than “paradigm shifting.”
AI Adoption
In light of the potential shifts away from conscientiousness, creativity, and exploration, and our frenzied hunger to adopt, our team is encouraging clients to adopt a healthy collaborative posture toward generative ANI. The exponential growth of its capabilities makes it difficult to generate hard and fast rules, but we suggest the following, somewhat philosophical, approaches to developing governing policies on the use of AI:
- AI is a tool that has the power to hyper-augment your capacity for production. Use it as such, and not the reverse. By using AI wisely, you'll be able to comprehend and assimilate complex ideas at a deeper level, and iterate through exploratory drafts of creative inspiration at rates never before possible.
- Data is valuable, but it's incomprehensible without human intuition, experience, and the will to shape and interpret it. Though more data will make responses more comprehensive, it won't necessarily correlate with more knowledge. Recognize that AI is not a replacement for human judgment and expertise.
- Though AI can help locate a destination, it shouldn't be the destination. Embracing a "good enough" mentality and relying solely on AI to generate content risks sacrificing organic creativity, which will never be within ANI's purview.
By adopting these approaches, we believe that clients can use AI to enhance their creativity and innovation, rather than stifle it.
